Publications (refereed)
Natural capital depletion and bank deposit reallocation
with Manuel Ramos-Francia, Peter Karlström and Ricardo Montañez-Enriquez
Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 184, March 2026, 107624. [Download]
Global banking with a Latin American rhythm
with Allen N. Berger, Peter Karlström, Stephen A. Karolyi, Freddy Pinzon-Puerto and Raluca A. Roman
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, November 2025 100195. [Download]
Untangling the finance-growth nexus: The dual role of financial development in the transmission of shocks
with Manuel Ramos-Francia and Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez
Emerging Markets Review, Volume 63, December 2024, 101192. [Download]
International banking and cross-border supervisory cooperation: Lessons from Latin America
with Consuelo Silva-Buston and Wolf Wagner
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, February 2025 100165. [Download]
State-ownership and bank presence in deforesting regions: Evidence from the Amazon rainforest
with Cristina Ortega
Applied Economics Letters, p.p. 1-5 [Download]
FX funding shocks and cross-border lending: The benefits of foreign relatives
with Fernando Eguren-Martin and Dennis Reinhardt
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 56, Issue1, Pages 115-152. [Download]
Media coverage: [Vox EU]
Download the Online Appendix here.
Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform
with J. M. Sánchez-Martínez, A. Rodríguez-Martínez, R. Montañéz-Enríquez, and S. Martínez-Jaramillo
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3, 100068 [Download]
Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil. [Download]
with Lena Tonzer and Chris Becker
Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71, 102096, 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Media coverage: [All About Finance - World Bank]
Banks fearing the drought? Liquidity hoarding as a response to idiosyncratic interbank funding dry-ups. [Download]
with Helge C.N. Littke
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Media coverage: [The European Money and Finance Forum - SUERF]
Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil. [Download]
with Felix Noth
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Foreign funding shocks and the lending channel: Do foreign banks adjust differently? [Download]
with Felix Noth
Finance Research Letters, Vol. (19), pp. 222-227, November 2016.
Work in progress
Migration remittances as information: Evidence from household credit [Download]
with Giancarlo Oseguera
Abstract: We study how remittance inflows shape the structure of household credit contracts using an administrative dataset that links individual-level remittance receipts to bank loan originations. Exploiting within-bank, within-time variation, we show that higher remittance exposure is associated with larger loan amounts, accompanied by modest increases in interest rates. These effects are stronger for borrowers with weaker credit relationships and when remittance inflows are more frequent, consistent with remittances operating as informative signals of repayment capacity. We further document differences in loan maturity, collateralization, and renegotiation patterns aligned with this interpreation. The results provide new micro-level evidence on how external household cash flows interact with bank lending in remittance-dependent economies.
Politics in financial intermediation: Evidence from Brazil [Download]
with Thorsten Beck, Paul Pelzl and Steven Poelhekk
Abstract: Using highly granular banking data from Brazil, we reveal a political bias in the financial intermediation of liquidity windfalls. Following a rise in deposits due to natural resource booms, state-owned banks increase credit supply outside of resource-rich areas by more if the destination municipality is politically aligned with the ruling president. In contrast, private banks redistribute significantly less funds to a destination municipality if it exhibits this same alignment. Unlike previous studies, our results on state-owned banks are not driven by changes in lending policies during election years aimed at supporting allied incumbent politicians who face strong political competition. Instead, the political lending bias holds across all years of the election cycle and we observe stronger effects when the allied incumbent was previously elected with a large margin of victory. This suggests that our results primarily arise from favoritism towards strong allies. Political lending by state-owned banks has a negative impact on bank profitability, indicating a misallocation of credit.
The ripple effect: Supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics [Download]
with Ricardo Correa, Andrea Fabiani, and Miguel Sarmiento
Abstract: Do reallocations of global supply chains affect the composition and geographical configuration of cross-border credit? We evaluate this question by exploiting exogenous changes in global supply chains triggered by the 2018-2019 trade tensions between China and the U.S. affecting a bystander country, Colombia. Combining unique transaction-level data on Colombian firms’ international trade and registries of both bank and firm-to-firm lending – domestic and cross-border –, we find that firms exporting products subjected to U.S. tariffs increased, ex-post, their exports to the U.S. While these firms gained improved access to domestic credit, we document a notable shift towards trade credit n their financing composition. These findings underscore a previously unexplored role
for firm-to-firm financing in facilitating global supply chain reconfigurations.
Clogged capital flows pipes? Non-bank global investors and the stability of bond flows [Download]
with Manuel Ramos-Francia and Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez
Abstract: Sovereign debt markets in emerging countries are increasingly exposed to foreign non-bank market players. In this paper, we explore the implications of this changing pattern by examining the impact of non-resident bond holders on the stability of bond flows to EMEs. Using quantile regressions and a weekly panel between 2004 and 2023 for five Latin American economies, we find that the link between global financial factors and bond outflows can be explained by sovereign debt exposure to global asset managers and ETFs portfolios. More resilient pipes and policy commitments attenuate this effect. These results highlight that the fear of liquidity being gated in clogged pipes can be a motive explaining the increasingly volatile environment of bond flows to EMEs.
Income inequality and capital reallocation in the presence of financial frictions [Download]
Abstract: Does income inequality affect banks' credit risk reallocation when facing financial distress? Using novel branch-level data on Colombian banks I find that facing a large liquidity shock, exposed banks shift more credit towards low-risk borrowers in municipalities with higher income inequality. For identification I compare branches’ reaction to a foreign funding shock within banks and across regions by simultaneously absorbing local demand. Collateral frictions play a key role: while the overall effect is stronger in regions with higher collateral constraints, credit backed by better collateral remains consistently shielded. Regional-level estimates suggest that this `inequality risk-taking channel’ can account for a significant share of consumption growth in crisis periods.
Working Papers
The ripple effect: supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics [Download]
with Ricardo Correa, Andrea Fabiani and Miguel Sarmiento
BIS Working Papers No 1315, December 2025
Fragile wholesale deposits, liquidity risk, and banks' maturity transformation [Download]
with Carola Müller, Miguel Sarmiento and Freddy Pinzon-Puerto
BIS Working Papers No 1263, April 2025
Media coverage: [The European Money and Finance Forum - SUERF]
Global Banking and the resilience of international supply chains [Download]
with Allen N. Berger, Freddy Pinzon-Puerto and Peter Karlström
Chicago Booth Research Paper 25-02; Fama-Miller Working Paper, February 2025
Banking on deforestation: The cost of nonenforcement [Download]
with Allen N. Berger, Cristina Ortega and Raluca Roman
Working Papers 24-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, December 2024
Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: does financial development break the link? [Download]
with Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo, Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez, Manuel Ramos-Francia, Anahí Rodríguez-Martínez ,
and José Manuel Sánchez-Martínez
IWH Discussion Papers, 3/2022
Banks Fearing the Drought? Liquidity Hoarding as a Response to Idiosyncratic Interbank Funding Dry-ups. [Download]
with Helge C.N. Littke
Discussion Paper Deutsche Bundesbank No 16/2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
FX funding shocks and cross-border lending: The benefits of foreign relatives [Download]
with Fernando Eguren-Martin and Dennis Reinhardt
Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 762 / 2019
Natural capital depletion and bank deposit reallocation
with Manuel Ramos-Francia, Peter Karlström and Ricardo Montañez-Enriquez
Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 184, March 2026, 107624. [Download]
Global banking with a Latin American rhythm
with Allen N. Berger, Peter Karlström, Stephen A. Karolyi, Freddy Pinzon-Puerto and Raluca A. Roman
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, November 2025 100195. [Download]
Untangling the finance-growth nexus: The dual role of financial development in the transmission of shocks
with Manuel Ramos-Francia and Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez
Emerging Markets Review, Volume 63, December 2024, 101192. [Download]
International banking and cross-border supervisory cooperation: Lessons from Latin America
with Consuelo Silva-Buston and Wolf Wagner
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, February 2025 100165. [Download]
State-ownership and bank presence in deforesting regions: Evidence from the Amazon rainforest
with Cristina Ortega
Applied Economics Letters, p.p. 1-5 [Download]
FX funding shocks and cross-border lending: The benefits of foreign relatives
with Fernando Eguren-Martin and Dennis Reinhardt
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 56, Issue1, Pages 115-152. [Download]
Media coverage: [Vox EU]
Download the Online Appendix here.
Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform
with J. M. Sánchez-Martínez, A. Rodríguez-Martínez, R. Montañéz-Enríquez, and S. Martínez-Jaramillo
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3, 100068 [Download]
Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil. [Download]
with Lena Tonzer and Chris Becker
Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71, 102096, 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Media coverage: [All About Finance - World Bank]
Banks fearing the drought? Liquidity hoarding as a response to idiosyncratic interbank funding dry-ups. [Download]
with Helge C.N. Littke
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Media coverage: [The European Money and Finance Forum - SUERF]
Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil. [Download]
with Felix Noth
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), 2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
Foreign funding shocks and the lending channel: Do foreign banks adjust differently? [Download]
with Felix Noth
Finance Research Letters, Vol. (19), pp. 222-227, November 2016.
Work in progress
Migration remittances as information: Evidence from household credit [Download]
with Giancarlo Oseguera
Abstract: We study how remittance inflows shape the structure of household credit contracts using an administrative dataset that links individual-level remittance receipts to bank loan originations. Exploiting within-bank, within-time variation, we show that higher remittance exposure is associated with larger loan amounts, accompanied by modest increases in interest rates. These effects are stronger for borrowers with weaker credit relationships and when remittance inflows are more frequent, consistent with remittances operating as informative signals of repayment capacity. We further document differences in loan maturity, collateralization, and renegotiation patterns aligned with this interpreation. The results provide new micro-level evidence on how external household cash flows interact with bank lending in remittance-dependent economies.
Politics in financial intermediation: Evidence from Brazil [Download]
with Thorsten Beck, Paul Pelzl and Steven Poelhekk
Abstract: Using highly granular banking data from Brazil, we reveal a political bias in the financial intermediation of liquidity windfalls. Following a rise in deposits due to natural resource booms, state-owned banks increase credit supply outside of resource-rich areas by more if the destination municipality is politically aligned with the ruling president. In contrast, private banks redistribute significantly less funds to a destination municipality if it exhibits this same alignment. Unlike previous studies, our results on state-owned banks are not driven by changes in lending policies during election years aimed at supporting allied incumbent politicians who face strong political competition. Instead, the political lending bias holds across all years of the election cycle and we observe stronger effects when the allied incumbent was previously elected with a large margin of victory. This suggests that our results primarily arise from favoritism towards strong allies. Political lending by state-owned banks has a negative impact on bank profitability, indicating a misallocation of credit.
The ripple effect: Supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics [Download]
with Ricardo Correa, Andrea Fabiani, and Miguel Sarmiento
Abstract: Do reallocations of global supply chains affect the composition and geographical configuration of cross-border credit? We evaluate this question by exploiting exogenous changes in global supply chains triggered by the 2018-2019 trade tensions between China and the U.S. affecting a bystander country, Colombia. Combining unique transaction-level data on Colombian firms’ international trade and registries of both bank and firm-to-firm lending – domestic and cross-border –, we find that firms exporting products subjected to U.S. tariffs increased, ex-post, their exports to the U.S. While these firms gained improved access to domestic credit, we document a notable shift towards trade credit n their financing composition. These findings underscore a previously unexplored role
for firm-to-firm financing in facilitating global supply chain reconfigurations.
Clogged capital flows pipes? Non-bank global investors and the stability of bond flows [Download]
with Manuel Ramos-Francia and Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez
Abstract: Sovereign debt markets in emerging countries are increasingly exposed to foreign non-bank market players. In this paper, we explore the implications of this changing pattern by examining the impact of non-resident bond holders on the stability of bond flows to EMEs. Using quantile regressions and a weekly panel between 2004 and 2023 for five Latin American economies, we find that the link between global financial factors and bond outflows can be explained by sovereign debt exposure to global asset managers and ETFs portfolios. More resilient pipes and policy commitments attenuate this effect. These results highlight that the fear of liquidity being gated in clogged pipes can be a motive explaining the increasingly volatile environment of bond flows to EMEs.
Income inequality and capital reallocation in the presence of financial frictions [Download]
Abstract: Does income inequality affect banks' credit risk reallocation when facing financial distress? Using novel branch-level data on Colombian banks I find that facing a large liquidity shock, exposed banks shift more credit towards low-risk borrowers in municipalities with higher income inequality. For identification I compare branches’ reaction to a foreign funding shock within banks and across regions by simultaneously absorbing local demand. Collateral frictions play a key role: while the overall effect is stronger in regions with higher collateral constraints, credit backed by better collateral remains consistently shielded. Regional-level estimates suggest that this `inequality risk-taking channel’ can account for a significant share of consumption growth in crisis periods.
Working Papers
The ripple effect: supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics [Download]
with Ricardo Correa, Andrea Fabiani and Miguel Sarmiento
BIS Working Papers No 1315, December 2025
Fragile wholesale deposits, liquidity risk, and banks' maturity transformation [Download]
with Carola Müller, Miguel Sarmiento and Freddy Pinzon-Puerto
BIS Working Papers No 1263, April 2025
Media coverage: [The European Money and Finance Forum - SUERF]
Global Banking and the resilience of international supply chains [Download]
with Allen N. Berger, Freddy Pinzon-Puerto and Peter Karlström
Chicago Booth Research Paper 25-02; Fama-Miller Working Paper, February 2025
Banking on deforestation: The cost of nonenforcement [Download]
with Allen N. Berger, Cristina Ortega and Raluca Roman
Working Papers 24-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, December 2024
Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: does financial development break the link? [Download]
with Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo, Ricardo Montañez-Enríquez, Manuel Ramos-Francia, Anahí Rodríguez-Martínez ,
and José Manuel Sánchez-Martínez
IWH Discussion Papers, 3/2022
Banks Fearing the Drought? Liquidity Hoarding as a Response to Idiosyncratic Interbank Funding Dry-ups. [Download]
with Helge C.N. Littke
Discussion Paper Deutsche Bundesbank No 16/2021
Download the Online Appendix here.
FX funding shocks and cross-border lending: The benefits of foreign relatives [Download]
with Fernando Eguren-Martin and Dennis Reinhardt
Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 762 / 2019
